Making decisions when there is little clarity

The world order is changing, but we don’t quite know the shape of things to come. AI is changing how we work, but most of us are still figuring out how to make it work for us, not against. There isn’t a whole lot we can do to get more clarity. When we have to make decisions in an uncertain environment, simply accepting the things we can’t change isn’t enough. Not wasting energy on fretting about the threats is definitely a good start, but we have to make a call on which way to go. When we can’t predict how things will play out, choosing a path can be really stressful. Especially when other people depend on our decisions. How can you make a call that gives you peace of mind?

First: do you have to make a decision at all? Can you afford to hold off? What is the benefit of making a decision now, and what is the potential cost?

If you judge that there is more benefit in holding off, do what you can to get more clarity for as long as you can. Talk to more people. Get other perspectives. Do research. You know what to do.

If you have to decide now, what compels you to do so?

What options do you have to maximise the benefit and mitigate the risk?

What can you do to test your idea? Who can you talk it through with?

Who can you convince with your compelling case? And do they understand the risk?

Now ask yourself: did I do everything I reasonably could to make a good decision with the available information? Once you can answer this question positively, you know you have reached a well-considered decision. Commit to it, act on it, and you will have executed your role within your sphere of control. As time goes by you may be able to look back and see what you can learn, but you’ll always know you did what you could.

is that mist sand, or water?

If you’d like to talk through a situation you’re in the thick of, I’m here for you.